New York City’s subway system, the nation’s busiest, sustained the worst damage in its 108 years of operation on October 29, 2012. Millions of people were left without service for at least a week. The damages from Superstorm Sandy are indicative of what powerful tropical storms and higher sea levels could bring more frequently in the future, and were very much in line with vulnerability assessments conducted over the past four years.^1,2,3,4 The effects of the storm would have been far worse if local climate resilience strategies had not been in place. The City of New York and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority worked aggressively to protect life and property by stopping the operation of the city’s subway before the storm hit and moving the train cars out of low-lying, flood-prone areas. Catastrophic loss of life would have resulted if there had been subway trains operating in the tunnels when the storm struck.

©William Vantuono, Railway Age Magazine

Climate change poses a series of interrelated challenges to the country’s most densely populated places: its cities. The U.S. is highly urbanized, with about 80% of its population living in cities and metropolitan areas. Cities depend on infrastructure, like water and sewage systems, roads, bridges, and power plants, much of which is aging and in need of repair or replacement. These issues will be compounded by rising sea levels, storm surges, heat waves, and extreme weather events, stressing or even overwhelming essential services.

Urban dwellers are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in essential infrastructure services, in part because many of these infrastructure systems are reliant on each other. For example, electricity is essential to multiple systems, and a failure in the electrical grid can affect water treatment, transportation services, and public health. These infrastructure systems – lifelines to millions – will continue to be affected by various climate-related events and processes.

Cities have become early responders to climate change challenges and opportunities. Integrating climate change action in everyday city and infrastructure operations and governance is an important planning and implementation tool for advancing adaptation in cities.^5,6 By integrating climate-change considerations into daily operations, these efforts can forestall the need to develop a new and isolated set of climate-change-specific policies or procedures.⁷ This strategy enables cities and other government agencies to take advantage of existing funding sources and programs, and achieve co-benefits in areas such as sustainability, public health, economic development, disaster preparedness, and environmental justice. Pursuing low-cost, no-regrets options is a particularly attractive short-term strategy for many cities.^5,7

Transportation systems are affected by climate change and also contribute to climate change. In 2010, the U.S. transportation sector accounted for 27% of all U.S. heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions, with cars and trucks accounting for 65% of that total.⁹ Petroleum accounts for 93% of the nation’s transportation energy use.⁹ This means that policies and behavioral changes aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions will have significant implications for the various components of the transportation sector.

Gulf Coast Transportation Hubs at Risk Details/Download

Transportation systems are already experiencing costly climate change related impacts. Many inland states, including Vermont, Tennessee, Iowa, and Missouri, have experienced severe precipitation events, hail, and flooding during the past three years, damaging roads, bridges, and rail systems and the vehicles that use them. Over the coming decades, all modes of transportation and regions will be affected by increasing temperatures, more extreme weather events, and changes in precipitation. Concentrated transportation impacts are particularly expected to occur in Alaska and along seacoasts.

The U.S. energy system provides a secure supply of energy with only occasional interruptions. However, projected impacts of climate change will increase energy use in the summer and pose additional risks to reliability. Extreme weather events and water shortages are already interrupting energy supply and impacts are expected to increase in the future. Most vulnerabilities and risks to energy supply and use are unique to local situations; others are national in scope.

Increase in Cooling Demand and Decrease in Heating Demand

Increase in Cooling Demand and Decrease in Heating Demand

HeatingCooling

The observed increase in cooling energy demand has been greater than the decrease in heating energy demand. Figure shows observed increases in population-weighted cooling degree days, which result in increased air conditioning use, and decreases in population-weighted heating degree days, meaning less energy required to heat buildings in winter, compared to the average for 1970-2000. Cooling degree days are defined as the number of degrees that a day’s average temperature is above 65ºF, while heating degree days are the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is below 65ºF. (Data from NOAA NCDC 2012¹⁰).

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Increases in average temperatures and high temperature extremes are expected to lead to increasing demands for electricity for cooling in every U.S. region. Virtually all cooling load is handled by the electrical grid. In order to meet increased demands for peak electricity, additional generating and distribution facilities will be needed, or demand will have to be managed through a variety of mechanisms. Electricity at peak demand typically is more expensive to supply than at average demand.¹¹

In addition to being vulnerable to the effects of climate change, electricity generation is a major source of the heat-trapping gases that contribute to climate change. As a result, regulatory or policy efforts aimed at reducing emissions would also affect the energy supply system.