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Climate change poses a major challenge to U.S. agriculture, because of the critical dependence of the agricultural system on climate and because of the complex role agriculture plays in social and economic systems. Climate change has the potential to both positively and negatively affect the location, timing, and productivity of crop, livestock, and fishery systems at local, national, and global scales.

The U.S. produces nearly $330 billion per year in agricultural commodities.⁶ This productivity is vulnerable to direct impacts on crop and livestock development and yield from changing climate conditions and extreme weather events, and indirect impacts through increasing pressures from pests and pathogens. Climate change has the potential to both positively and negatively affect agricultural systems at local, national, and global scales. Climate change will also alter the stability of food supplies and create new food security challenges for the U.S. as the world seeks to feed nine billion people by 2050.

Crop Yields Decline under Higher Temperatures Details/Download

The agricultural sector continually adapts through a variety of strategies that have allowed previous agricultural production to increase, as evidenced by the continued growth in production and efficiency across the United States. However, the magnitude of climate change projected for this century and beyond, particularly under higher emissions scenarios, will challenge the ability of the agriculture sector to continue to successfully adapt.

Key Climate Variables Affecting Agricultural Productivity

Projected Changes in Key Climate Variables Affecting Agricultural Productivity

Change in Frost-free Season Length
Change in Number of Consecutive Dry DaysChange in Number of Hot Nights

Frost-free season is projected to lengthen across much of the nation. Taking advantage of the increasing length of the growing season and changing planting dates could allow planting of more diverse crop rotations, which can be an effective adaptation strategy.

The annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (less than 0.01 inches of rain) is projected to increase, especially in the western and southern parts of the nation, negatively affecting crop and animal production. The trend toward more consecutive dry days and higher temperatures will increase evaporation and add stress to limited water resources, affecting irrigation and other water uses.⁴

Hot nights are defined as nights with a minimum temperature higher than 98% of the minimum temperatures between 1971 and 2000. Such nights are projected to increase throughout the nation. High nighttime temperatures can reduce grain yields and increase stress on animals, resulting in reduced rates of meat, milk, and egg production.⁵

Projections are shown for 2070-2099 as compared to 1971-2000 under an emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in heat-trapping gases (A2). (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC).

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