Section 4: Case Studies
Illustrative Case One: National Integrated Drought Information System
NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System), originally proposed by the Western Governors’ Association (WGA) and established by Congress in 2006, is a federally-created entity that improves the nation’s capacity to proactively manage drought-related risks across sectors, regions, and jurisdictions. It was created by Congress to “enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts.” NIDIS has successfully brought together government partners and research organizations to advance a warning system for drought-sensitive areas.
The creation of NIDIS involved many years of development and coordination among federal, state, local, regional, and tribal partners with the help of Governors’ associations and Senate and Congressional leaders. NIDIS provides: 1) drought early warning information systems with regional detail concerning onset and severity; 2) a web-based portal (www.drought.gov); 3) coordination of federal research in support of and use of these systems; and 4) leveraging of existing partnerships and of forecasting and assessment programs. NIDIS currently supports work on water supply and demand, wildfire risk assessment and management, and agriculture. Regional drought early warning system pilot projects have been established to illustrate the benefits of improved knowledge management, improved use of existing and new information products, and coordination and capacity development for early warning systems. These prototype systems are in the Upper Colorado Basin, the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeast, the Four Corners region in the Southwest, and California. The NIDIS Outlook in the Upper Colorado Basin provides early warning information every week, for example, that is utilized by a variety of users from federal agencies, water resource management, and the recreation industry.
The Western Governors’ Association, the U.S. Congress, and others have formally acknowledged that NIDIS provides a successful example of achieving effective federal-state partnerships by engaging both leadership andthe public, and establishing an authoritative basis for integrating monitoring and research to support risk management. Some of NIDIS’s keys to success include:
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Usable Technology and Information for Decision Support: The production of the U.S. Drought Monitor map, which integrates multiple indicators and indices from many data sources, was developed before NIDIS was established and has become a useful visual decision support tool for monitoring and characterizing drought onset, severity, and persistence. NIDIS has engaged regional and local experts in refining the regional details of this national product and in “ground truthing” maps via email discussions and webinars (Figure 28.5).
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Financial Assistance: Federal funding was allocated to NOAA specifically for NIDIS, but leveraged in kind by other agencies and partners.
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Institutional/Partnerships: Effective collaborations, partnerships, and coordination with NOAA, WGA, USDA, DOI, and USGS as well as local, regional, state, and tribal partners and with the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, have led to multi-institutional “buy-in.”
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Institutional/Policy: The NIDIS Act was oriented toward the improvement of coordination across federal agencies and with regional organizations, universities, and states. It focused on the application of technology, including the Internet, and on impact assessments for decision support. A key aspect of NIDIS is the development of an ongoing regional outlook forum based on the above information to build awareness of the drought hazard and to embed information in planning and practice (in partnership with the National Drought Mitigation Center, the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA), and other research-based boundary organizations) to reduce risks and impacts associated with drought.
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Leadership and Champions: NIDIS supporters worked at all levels over more than two decades (1990s and 2000s) to establish the NIDIS Act, including political groups (WGA, Southern Governors’ Association, National Governors Association, and U.S. Senators and Representatives), scientific leaders, and federal agencies (NOAA, USDA, DOI).
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Risk Perceptions: Whereas drought had been considered primarily a western issue in previous decades, drought is now regularly affecting the southern, southeastern, and northeastern parts of the country and response strategies are needed. During the 2012 drought, more than 63% of the contiguous U.S. by the end of July was classified as experiencing moderate to exceptional drought, and more than 3,200 heat records were broken in June 2012 alone.,
Illustrative Case Two: Adaptive Governance in the Colorado River Basin
The Colorado River supplies water and valuable ecosystem services to 33 million people and is vulnerable to climate change because of decreases in mountain snowpack and water availability, increased competition among water users, fires, drought, invasive species, and extended extreme heat events, among other threats.,,,,, The 1922 Colorado River Compact, which allocates water among seven U.S. states and Mexico, was agreed upon in a particularly wet time period;, thus the river water is already over-allocated for current conditions. Given the likelihood of having less water because of climate change, resource managers and government leaders are increasingly recognizing that water must be managed with flexibility to respond to the projected impacts and the range of possible future climates (see Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate; Ch. 3: Water)., Multiple actors across multiple disciplines, scales of governance (including tribal, local, state, and federal), non-governmental organizations, and the private sector are organizing and working together to address these concerns and the relationship between climate and other stresses in the basin.
The Western Governors’ Association (WGA) spearheaded adaptation efforts to enable federal, state, tribal, local, and private sector partners to address a range of issues, including climate change.,,,, For example, the Western Federal Agency Support Team (WestFAST), which was established in 2008, created a partnership between the Western States Water Council (WSWC) and 11 federal agencies with water management responsibilities in the western United States. The agencies created a work plan in 2011 to address three key areas: 1) climate change; 2) water availability, water use, and water reuse; and 3) water quality. To date they have produced the WestFAST Water-Climate Change Program Inventory, the Federal Agency Summary, and a Water Availability Studies Inventory (www,westgov.org).
The WSWC and the USACE produced the Western States Watershed Study (WSWS), which demonstrated how federal agencies could work collaboratively with western states on planning activities. In 2009, the WGA also adopted a policy resolution titled “Supporting the Integration of Climate Change Adaptation Science in the West” that created a Climate Adaptation Work Group composed of western state experts in air quality, forest management, water resources, and wildlife management. Other important adaptation actions were the SECURE Water Act in 2009, the Reclamation Colorado River Basin water supply and demand study, and the creation of NIDIS to support stakeholders in coping with drought. ,,
Illustrative Case Three: Climate Change Adaptation in Forests
Northern Wisconsin’s climate has warmed over the past 50 years, and windstorms, wildfires, insect outbreaks, and floods are projected to become more frequent in this century. The resulting impacts on forests, combined with fragmented and complex forest ownership, create management challenges that extend across ownership boundaries, creating the need for a multi-stakeholder planning process.,,
Figure 28.6: Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Region
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To address these concerns, the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, the USDA’s Forest Service, and many other partners initiated the Climate Change Response Framework to incorporate scientific research on climate change impacts into on-the-ground management. Originally developed as a pilot project for all-lands conservation in northern Wisconsin, it has expanded to cover three ecological regions (Northwoods [Figure 28.6], Central Hardwoods, and Central Appalachians) across eight states in the Midwest and Northeast. The Framework uses a collaborative and iterative approach to provide information and resources to forest owners and managers across a variety of private and public organizations. Several products were developed through the Framework in northern Wisconsin:
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Vulnerability and mitigation assessments summarized the observed and projected changes in the northern Wisconsin climate, projected changes in forest composition and carbon stocks across a range of potential climates, and assessed related vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems in northern Wisconsin.
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Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers was developed to help managers identify management tactics that facilitate adaptation. A “menu” of adaptation strategies and approaches for planning, implementing, and monitoring adaptation activities was synthesized into an adaptation workbook from a broad set of literature and refined based on feedback from regional scientists and managers.,
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A series of adaptation demonstrations was initiated to showcase ground-level implementation. The Framework and adaptation workbook provide a common process shared by diverse landowners and a formal network that supports cross-boundary discussion about different management objectives, ecosystems, and associated adaptation tactics.
From the beginning, the Framework has taken an adaptive management approach in its adaptation planning and projects. Lessons learned include:
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Define the purpose and scope of the Framework and its components early, but allow for refinement to take advantage of new opportunities.
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Begin projects with a synthesis of existing information to avoid duplicating efforts.
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Plan for the extra time necessary to implement true collaboration.
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Carefully match the skills, commitment, and capacity of people and organizations to project tasks.
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Maintain an atmosphere of trust, positivity, and sense of adventure, rather than dwelling on failures.
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Acknowledge and work with uncertainty, rather than submit to “uncertainty paralysis.”
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Recognize the necessity of effective communication among people with different goals, disciplinary backgrounds, vocabulary, and perspectives on uncertainty.
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Integrate the ecological and socioeconomic dimensions early by emphasizing the many ways that communities value and depend on forests.
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Use technology to increase efficiency of internal communication and collaboration, as well as outreach.
The Framework brings scientists and land managers together to assess the vulnerability of ecosystems based on scientific information and experience in order to plan adaptation actions that meet management goals. On-the-ground implementation has just begun, and an increased focus on demonstrations, monitoring, and evaluation will inform future adaptation efforts.
Illustrative Case Four: Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change — Integrating Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in Cape Cod, Massachusetts
Cape Cod, Massachusetts, a region of scenic beauty and environmental significance, is currently affected by sea level rise, coastal erosion, and localized flooding – impacts that are likely to be exacerbated by climate change., To address these concerns and help meet the state’s greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target (25% reduction based on 1990 levels by 2020), the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Volpe Center worked with federal, regional, state, and local stakeholders to integrate climate change into existing and future transportation, land-use, coastal zone, and hazard mitigation planning through an initiative called the Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project.,
The process was initiated through an expert elicitation held in mid-2010 to identify areas on Cape Cod that are or could potentially be vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding, and erosion. The Volpe Center then used a geographic information system (GIS) software tool to develop and evaluate a series of transportation and land-use scenarios for the Cape under future development projections., All scenarios were evaluated against a series of criteria that included: 1) reduction in vehicle miles traveled; 2) reduced heat-trapping gas emissions; 3) reduction in transportation energy use; 4) preservation of natural/existing ecosystems; 5) reduction in percentage of new population in areas identified as vulnerable to climate change impacts; and 6) increased regional accessibility to transportation.
Once the preliminary scenarios were developed, a workshop was convened in which community and transportation planners, environmental managers, and Cape Cod National Seashore stakeholders selected areas for development and transit improvements to accommodate new growth while meeting the goals of reduced heat-trapping gas emissions, increased resilience to climate change, and the conservation of natural systems. Through interactive visualization tools, participants were able to see in real-time the impacts of their siting decisions, allowing them to evaluate synergies and potential tradeoffs of their choices and to highlight areas where conflict could or already does exist, such as increasing density of development in areas already or likely to be vulnerable to climate change. As a result, the stakeholders developed a refined transportation and land-use scenario that will support the region’s long-range transportation planning as well as other local, regional, and state plans. This updated scenario identifies strategies that have climate adaptation and mitigation value, helping to ensure that the region simultaneously reduces its heat-trapping gas footprint while building resilience to existing and future changes in climate., The overall success of the pilot project stemmed from the intensive stakeholder interaction at each phase of the project (design, implementation, and evaluation).