This website is the digital version of the 2014 National Climate Assessment, produced in collaboration with the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

For the official version, please refer to the PDF in the downloads section. The downloadable PDF is the official version of the 2014 National Climate Assessment.

Credits | Site Map

Search Options

X

Search form

Top

Welcome to the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.

A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

Explore the effects of climate change
United States Global Change Research Program logo
United States Department of Agriculture logo United States Department of Commerce logo United States Department of Defense logo United States Department of Energy logo United States Department of Health and Human Services logo United States Department of the Interior logo United States Department of State logo United States Department of Transportation logo United States Environmental Protection Agency logo National Aeronautics and Space Administration logo National Science Foundation logo Smithsonian Institution logo United States Agency for International Development logo

Key Message: Wide-ranging Health Impacts

Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including impacts from increased extreme weather events, wildfire, decreased air quality, threats to mental health, and illnesses transmitted by food, water, and disease-carriers such as mosquitoes and ticks. Some of these health impacts are already underway in the United States.

Supporting Evidence
close

Supporting Evidence

Process for Developing Key Messages:

The key messages were developed during technical discussions and expert deliberation at a two-day meeting of the eight chapter Lead Authors, plus Susan Hassol and Daniel Glick, held in Boulder, Colorado May 8-9, 2012; through multiple technical discussions via six teleconferences from January through June 2012, and an author team call to finalize the Traceable Account draft language on Oct 12, 2012; and through other various communications on points of detail and issues of expert judgment in the interim. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with Contributing Authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the key message. These discussions were held after a review of the technical inputs and associated literature pertaining to human health, including a literature review,1 workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States, and additional technical inputs on a variety of topics.

Description of evidence base

The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in several foundational technical inputs prepared for this chapter, including a literature review1 and workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States. Nearly 60 additional technical inputs related to human health were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.

Air Pollution:

The effects of decreased ozone air quality on human health have been well documented concerning projected increases in ozone,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 even with uncertainties in projections owing to the complex formation chemistry of ozone and climate change, precursor chemical inventories, wildfire emission, stagnation episodes, methane emissions, regulatory controls, and population characteristics.11 Ozone exposure leads to a number of health impacts.12,13,14

Allergens:

The effects of increased temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentration have been documented concerning shifts in flowering time and pollen initiation from allergenic plants, elevated production of plant-based allergens, and health effects of increased pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons.15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26 Additional studies have shown extreme rainfall and higher temperatures can lead to increased indoor air quality issues such as fungi and mold health concerns.27,28,29,30

Wildfire:

The effects of wildfire on human health have been well documented with increase in wildfire frequency18,31,32,33,34,35,10,36 leading to decreased air quality37,38,39,40,41,42 and negative health impacts.38,43,44,45

Temperature Extremes:

The effects of temperature extremes on human health have been well documented for increased heat waves,46,47,48,49 which cause more deaths,50,51 hospital admissions52,53,54 and population vulnerability.55,56

Precipitation Extremes - Heavy Rainfall, Flooding, and Droughts:

The effects of weather extremes on human health have been well documented, particularly for increased heavy precipitation, which has contributed to increases in severe flooding events in certain regions. Floods are the second deadliest of all weather-related hazards in the United States.57,58 Elevated waterborne disease outbreaks have been reported in the weeks following heavy rainfall,59 although other variables may affect these associations.60 Populations living in damp indoor environments experience increased prevalence of asthma and other upper respiratory tract symptoms.61

Disease Carried by Vectors:

Climate is one of the factors that influence the range of disease vectors; 62,63,64 a shift in the current range may increase interactions with people and affect human health.65,66,67,68 North Americans are currently at risk from a number of vector-borne diseases.69,70,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81There are some ambiguities on the relative role and contribution of climate change among the range of factors that affect disease transmission dynamics.65,82,62,63,69,66,67,68,64 However, observational studies are already underway and confidence is high based on scientific literature that climate change has contributed to the expanded range of certain disease vectors, including Ixodes ticks which are vectors for Lyme disease in the United States.83,84,85

Food- and Waterborne Diarrheal Disease:

There has been extensive research concerning the effects of climate change on water- and food-borne disease transmission.86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96 The current evidence base strongly supports waterborne diarrheal disease being both seasonal and sensitive to climate variability. There are also multiple studies associating extreme precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks.59 This evidence of responsiveness of waterborne disease to weather and climate, combined with evidence strongly suggesting that temperatures will increase and extreme precipitation events will increase in frequency and severity (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate), provides a strong argument for climate change impacts on waterborne disease by analogy. There are multiple studies associating extreme precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks and strong climatological evidence for increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the future. The scientific literature modeling the projected impacts of climate change on waterborne disease is somewhat limited, however. Combined, we therefore have overall medium confidence in the impact of climate change on waterborne and food-borne disease.

Harmful Algal Blooms:

Because algal blooms are closely related to climate factors, projected changes in climate could affect algal blooms and lead to increases in food- and waterborne exposures and subsequent cases of illness.95,96,97,98,99,100,101 Harmful algal blooms have multiple exposure routes.102,103,104

Food Security:

Climate change is expected to have global impacts on both food production and certain aspects of food quality. The impact of temperature extremes, changes in precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO2, and increasing competition from weeds and pests on crop plants are areas of active research (Ch. 6: Agriculture, Key Message 6).105,106,107,108,109,110,111,112,26 The U.S. as a whole will be less affected than some other countries. However, the most vulnerable, including those dependent on subsistence lifestyles, especially Alaska Natives and low-income populations, will confront shortages of key foods.

Mental Health and Stress-Related Disorders:

The effects of extreme weather on mental health have been extensively studied.113,114,115,116 Studies have shown the impacts of mental health problems after disasters,117,118,119 with extreme events like Hurricane Katrina,120,121 floods,122,123 heat waves,124 and wildfires125 having led to mental health problems. Further work has shown that some people with mental illnesses are especially vulnerable to heat. Suicide rates vary with weather,126,127,128 dementia is a risk factor for hospitalization and death during heat waves,124,129 and medications for schizophrenia may interfere with temperature regulation or even directly cause hyperthermia.130,131 Additional potential mental health impacts include distress associated with environmental degradation, displacement, and the knowledge of climate change.114,115,132,133

New information and remaining uncertainties

Important new evidence on heat-health effects134,135,136 confirmed many of the findings from a prior literature review. Uncertainties in the magnitude of projections of future climate-related morbidity and mortality can result from differences in climate model projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves and other climate parameters such as precipitation.

Efforts to improve the information base should address the coordinated monitoring of climate and improved surveillance of health effects.

Assessment of confidence based on evidence

Overall: Very High confidence. There is considerable consensus and a high quality of evidence in the published peer-reviewed literature that a wide range of health effects will be exacerbated by climate change in the United States. There is less agreement on the magnitude of these effects because of the exposures in question and the multi-factorial nature of climate-health vulnerability, with regional and local differences in underlying health susceptibilities and adaptive capacity. Other uncertainties include how much effort and resources will be put into improving the adaptive capacity of public health systems to prepare in advance for the health effects of climate change, prevent harm to individual and community health, and limit associated health burdens and societal costs.

Increased Ozone Exposure: Very High confidence.

Allergens: High confidence.

Wildfires: Very High confidence.

Thermal Extremes: Very High confidence.

Extreme Weather Events: Very High confidence.

Vector-borne Infectious Diseases: High or Very High confidence for shift in range of disease-carrying vectors. Medium confidence for whether human disease transmission will follow.

Food- and Waterborne disease: Medium confidence.

Harmful Algal Blooms: Medium confidence.

Food Security: Medium confidence for food quality; High confidence for food security.

Threats to Mental Health: Very High confidence for post-disaster impacts; Medium confidence for climate-induced stress.

Confidence Level

Very High

Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus

High

Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus

Medium

Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought

Low

Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts

References

  1. Ahern, M., R. S. Kovats, P. Wilkinson, R. Few, and F. Matthies, 2005: Global health impacts of floods: Epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews, 27, 36-46, doi:10.1093/epirev/mxi004. | Detail

  2. Akagi, S. K., R. J. Yokelson, C. Wiedinmyer, M. Alvarado, J. Reid, T. Karl, J. Crounse, and P. Wennberg, 2011: Emission factors for open and domestic biomass burning for use in atmospheric models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 4039-4072, doi:10.5194/acp-11-4039-2011. URL | Detail

  3. Ariano, R., G. W. Canonica, and G. Passalacqua, 2010: Possible role of climate changes in variations in pollen seasons and allergic sensitizations during 27 years. Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology, 104, 215-222, doi:10.1016/j.anai.2009.12.005. | Detail

  4. Ashley, S. T., and W. S. Ashley, 2008: Flood fatalities in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 805-818, doi:10.1175/2007JAMX1611.1. URL | Detail

  5. Asseng, S., I. Foster, and N. C. Turner, 2011: The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Global Change Biology, 17, 997-1012, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02262.x. | Detail

  6. Backer, L. C., L. E. Fleming, A. Rowan, Y. S. Cheng, J. Benson, R. H. Pierce, J. Zaias, J. Bean, G. D. Bossart, D. Johnson, R. Quimbo, and D. G. Baden, 2003: Recreational exposure to aerosolized brevetoxins during Florida red tide events. Harmful Algae, 2, 19-28, doi:10.1016/s1568-9883(03)00005-2. | Detail

  7. Backer, L. C., B. Kirkpatrick, L. E. Fleming, Y. S. Cheng, R. Pierce, J. A. Bean, R. Clark, D. Johnson, A. Wanner, R. Tamer, Y. Zhou, and D. G. Baden, 2005: Occupational exposure to aerosolized brevetoxins during Florida red tide events: Effects on a healthy worker population. Environmental Health Perspectives, 113, 644-649, doi:10.1289/ehp.7502. | Detail

  8. Backer, L. C., S. V. McNeel, T. Barber, B. Kirkpatrick, C. Williams, M. Irvin, Y. Zhou, T. B. Johnson, K. Nierenberg, M. Aubel, R. Le Prell, A. Chapman, A. Foss, S. Corum, V. R. Hill, S. M. Kiezak, and Y. - S. Cheng, 2010: Recreational exposure to microcystins during algal blooms in two California lakes. Toxicon, 55, 909-921, doi:10.1016/j.toxicon.2009.07.006. | Detail

  9. Baker-Austin, C., J. A. Trinanes, N. G. H. Taylor, R. Hartnell, A. Siitonen, and J. Martinez-Urtaza, 2012: Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming. Nature Climate Change, 3, 73-77, doi:10.1038/nclimate1628. | Detail

  10. Basu, R., 2009: High ambient temperature and mortality: A review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environmental Health, 8, 1-13, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-8-40. | Detail

  11. Basu, R., and J. M. Samet, 2002: Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: A review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews, 24, 190-202, doi:10.1093/epirev/mxf007. | Detail

  12. Battisti, D. S., and R. L. Naylor, 2009: Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244, doi:10.1126/science.1164363. | Detail

  13. Bell, M., D. Davis, L. Cifuentes, A. Krupnick, R. Morgenstern, and G. Thurston, 2008: Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation. Environmental Health, 7, 1-18, doi:10.1186/1476-069x-7-41. | Detail

  14. Bell, M. L., R. Goldberg, C. Hogrefe, P. L. Kinney, K. Knowlton, B. Lynn, J. Rosenthal, C. Rosenzweig, and J. A. Patz, 2007: Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities. Climatic Change, 82, 61-76, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9166-7. | Detail

  15. Berry, H. L., B. J. Kelly, I. C. Hanigan, J. H. Coates, A. J. McMichael, J. A. Welsh, and T. Kjellstrom, 2008: Rural Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change. 40 pp., Garnaut Climate Change Review. URL $File/03-D%20Mental%20health.pdf | Detail

  16. Breton, M. C., M. Garneau, I. Fortier, F. Guay, and J. Louis, 2006: Relationship between climate, pollen concentrations of Ambrosia and medical consultations for allergic rhinitis in Montreal, 1994–2002. Science of The Total Environment, 370, 39-50, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.05.022. | Detail

  17. ,, 1998: Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections associated with eating raw oysters-Pacific Northwest, 1997. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 47, 457-462. URL | Detail

  18. ,, 2010: Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. URL | Detail

  19. ,, 2013: Interactive Lyme Disease Map. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. URL | Detail

  20. Chang, H. H., J. Zhou, and M. Fuentes, 2010: Impact of climate change on ambient ozone level and mortality in southeastern United States. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 7, 2866-2880, doi:10.3390/ijerph7072866. | Detail

  21. Cohen, M. J., C. Tirado, N. - L. Aberman, and B. Thompson, 2008: Impact of climate change and bioenergy on nutrition. 86 pp., International Food Policy Research Institute, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. URL | Detail

  22. Curriero, F. C., J. A. Patz, J. B. Rose, and S. Lele, 2001: The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948–1994. American Journal of Public Health, 91, 1194-1199, doi:10.2105/AJPH.91.8.1194. | Detail

  23. Davidson, J. R. T., and A. C. McFarlane, 2006: The extent and impact of mental health problems after disaster. Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, 67, 9-14. | Detail

  24. Degallier, N., C. Favier, C. Menkes, M. Lengaigne, W. M. Ramalho, R. Souza, J. Servain, and J. P. Boulanger, 2010: Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: Modeling climate impact on dengue transmission. Climatic Change, 98, 581-592, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9747-3. URL | Detail

  25. Deisenhammer, E. A., 2003: Weather and suicide: The present state of knowledge on the association of meteorological factors with suicidal behaviour. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 108, 402-409, doi:10.1046/j.0001-690X.2003.00209.x. | Detail

  26. Delfino, R. J., S. Brummel, J. Wu, H. Stern, B. Ostro, M. Lipsett, A. Winer, D. H. Street, L. Zhang, T. Tjoa, and D. L. Gillen, 2009: The relationship of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions to the southern California wildfires of 2003. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 66, 189-197, doi:10.1136/oem.2008.041376. [URL | Detail

  27. Dennekamp, M., and M. Carey, 2010: Air quality and chronic disease: Why action on climate change is also good for health. New South Wales Public Health Bulletin, 21, 115-121, doi:10.1071/NB10026. URL | Detail

  28. Dennekamp, M., and M. J. Abramson, 2011: The effects of bushfire smoke on respiratory health. Respirology, 16, 198-209, doi:10.1111/j.1440-1843.2010.01868.x. | Detail

  29. Diuk-Wasser, M. A., G. Vourc’h, P. Cislo, A. G. Hoen, F. Melton, S. A. Hamer, M. Rowland, R. Cortinas, G. J. Hickling, J. I. Tsao, A. G. Barbour, U. Kitron, J. Piesman, and D. Fish, 2010: Field and climate-based model for predicting the density of host-seeking nymphal Ixodes scapularis, an important vector of tick-borne disease agents in the eastern United States. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 504-514, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00526.x. | Detail

  30. Doherty, T. J., and S. Clayton, 2011: The psychological impacts of global climate change. American Psychologist, 66, 265-276, doi:10.1037/a0023141. URL | Detail

  31. Duffy, P. B., and C. Tebaldi, 2012: Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S. Climatic Change, 111, 487-495, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6. | Detail

  32. D’amato, G., and L. Cecchi, 2008: Effects of climate change on environmental factors in respiratory allergic diseases. Clinical & Experimental Allergy, 38, 1264-1274, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2222.2008.03033.x. | Detail

  33. Ebi, K. L., and J. C. Semenza, 2008: Community-based adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35, 501-507, doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.018. | Detail

  34. Emberlin, J., M. Detandt, R. Gehrig, S. Jaeger, N. Nolard, and A. Rantio-Lehtimäki, 2002: Responses in the start of Betula (birch) pollen seasons to recent changes in spring temperatures across Europe. International Journal of Biometeorology, 46, 159-170, doi:10.1007/s00484-002-0139-x. | Detail

  35. Epstein, P., 2010: The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases: Comment. Ecology, 91, 925-928, doi:10.1890/09-0761.1. | Detail

  36. Febriani, Y., P. Levallois, S. Gingras, P. Gosselin, S. E. Majowicz, and M. D. Fleury, 2010: The association between farming activities, precipitation, and the risk of acute gastrointestinal illness in rural municipalities of Quebec, Canada: A cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health, 10, 48, doi:10.1186/1471-2458-10-48. URL | Detail

  37. Fewtrell, L., and D. Kay, 2008: An attempt to quantify the health impacts of flooding in the UK using an urban case study. Public Health, 122, 446-451, doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2007.09.010. | Detail

  38. Fiore, A. M. et al., 2012: Global air quality and climate. Chemical Society Reviews, 41, 6663-6683, doi:10.1039/c2cs35095e. | Detail

  39. Fisk, W. J., Q. Lei-Gomez, and M. J. Mendell, 2007: Meta-analyses of the associations of respiratory health effects with dampness and mold in homes. Indoor Air, 17, 284-296, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0668.2007.00475.x. URL | Detail

  40. Fleury, M., D. F. Charron, J. D. Holt, O. B. Allen, and A. R. Maarouf, 2006: A time series analysis of the relationship of ambient temperature and common bacterial enteric infections in two Canadian provinces. International Journal of Biometeorology, 50, 385-91, doi:10.1007/s00484-006-0028-9. | Detail

  41. Fritze, J. G., G. A. Blashki, S. Burke, and J. Wiseman, 2008: Hope, despair and transformation: Climate change and the promotion of mental health and wellbeing. International Journal of Mental Health Systems, 2, 1-13, doi:10.1186/1752-4458-2-13. | Detail

  42. Gage, K. L., T. R. Burkot, R. J. Eisen, and E. B. Hayes, 2008: Climate and vectorborne diseases. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35, 436-450, doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.030. | Detail

  43. Galea, S., C. R. Brewin, M. Gruber, R. T. Jones, D. W. King, L. A. King, R. J. McNally, R. J. Ursano, M. Petukhova, and R. C. Kessler, 2007: Exposure to hurricane-related stressors and mental illness after Hurricane Katrina. Archives of General Psychiatry, 64, 1427-1434, doi:10.1001/archpsyc.64.12.1427. URL | Detail

  44. Gong, H., A. T. DeGaetano, and L. C. Harrington, 2011: Climate-based models for West Nile Culex mosquito vectors in the Northeastern U.S. International Journal of Biometeorology, 55, 435-446, doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0354-9. | Detail

  45. Gornall, J., R. Betts, E. Burke, R. Clark, J. Camp, K. Willett, and A. Wiltshire, 2010: Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2973-2989, doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0158. URL | Detail

  46. Halpern, J., and M. Tramontin, 2007: Disaster Mental Health: Theory and Practice. Thomson Brooks/Cole. | Detail

  47. Hansen, A., P. Bi, M. Nitschke, P. Ryan, D. Pisaniello, and G. Tucker, 2008: The effect of heat waves on mental health in a temperate Australian city. Environmental Health Perspectives, 116, 1369-1375, doi:10.1289/ehp.11339. URL | Detail

  48. Harper, S. L., V. L. Edge, C. J. Schuster-Wallace, O. Berke, and S. A. McEwen, 2011: Weather, water quality and infectious gastrointestinal illness in two Inuit communities in Nunatsiavut, Canada: Potential implications for climate change. Ecohealth, 8, 93-108, doi:10.1007/s10393-011-0690-1. | Detail

  49. Hayhoe, K., S. Sheridan, L. Kalkstein, and S. Greene, 2010: Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, 65-73, doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2009.12.009. URL | Detail

  50. Hu, W., S. Tong, K. Mengersen, and D. Connell, 2007: Weather variability and the incidence of cryptosporidiosis: Comparison of time series Poisson regression and SARIMA models. Annals of Epidemiology, 17, 679-688, doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2007.03.020. | Detail

  51. Hu, W., K. Mengersen, S. - Y. Fu, and S. Tong, 2010: The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables. International Journal of Biometeorology, 54, 433-440, doi:10.1007/s00484-009-0294-4. | Detail

  52. ,, 2011: Climate Change, the Indoor Environment, and Health. The National Academies Press. URL | Detail

  53. ,, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 976 pp. | Detail

  54. Jackson, J. E., M. G. Yost, C. Karr, C. Fitzpatrick, B. K. Lamb, S. H. Chung, J. Chen, J. Avise, R. A. Rosenblatt, and R. A. Fenske, 2010: Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: Projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution. Climatic Change, 102, 159-186, doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9852-3. | Detail

  55. Jacob, D. J., and D. A. Winner, 2009: Effect of climate change on air quality. Atmospheric Environment, 43, 51-63, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051. URL | Detail

  56. Jaffe, D., W. Hafner, D. Chand, A. Westerling, and D. Spracklen, 2008: Interannual variations in PM2.5 due to wildfires in the western United States. Environmental Science & Technology, 42, 2812-2818, doi:10.1021/es702755v. | Detail

  57. Jaffe, D., D. Chand, W. Hafner, A. Westerling, and D. Spracklen, 2008: Influence of fires on O3 concentrations in the western US. Environmental Science & Technology, 42, 5885-5891, doi:10.1021/es800084k. | Detail

  58. Jenkins, J. L., E. B. Hsu, L. M. Sauer, Y. H. Hsieh, and T. D. Kirsch, 2009: Prevalence of unmet health care needs and description of health care-seeking behavior among displaced people after the 2007 California wildfires. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 3, S24-28, doi:10.1097/DMP.0b013e31819f1afc. URL | Detail

  59. Johansson, M. A., D. A. T. Cummings, and G. E. Glass, 2009: Multiyear climate variability and dengue—El Niño southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A longitudinal data analysis. PLoS Medicine, 6, e1000168, doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000168. URL | Detail

  60. Johnson, D. P., J. S. Wilson, and G. C. Luber, 2009: Socioeconomic indicators of heat-related health risk supplemented with remotely sensed data. International Journal of Health Geographics, 8, 1-13, doi:10.1186/1476-072X-8-57. URL | Detail

  61. Jury, M. R., 2008: Climate influence on dengue epidemics in Puerto Rico. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 18, 323-334, doi:10.1080/09603120701849836. | Detail

  62. Kampa, M., and E. Castanas, 2008: Human health effects of air pollution. Environmental Pollution, 151, 362-367, doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2007.06.012. | Detail

  63. Keesing, F., J. Brunner, S. Duerr, M. Killilea, K. LoGiudice, K. Schmidt, H. Vuong, and R. S. Ostfeld, 2009: Hosts as ecological traps for the vector of Lyme disease. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 3911-3919, doi:10.1098/rspb.2009.1159. | Detail

  64. Kessler, R. C., S. Galea, M. J. Gruber, N. A. Sampson, R. J. Ursano, and S. Wessely, 2008: Trends in mental illness and suicidality after Hurricane Katrina. Molecular Psychiatry, 13, 374-384, doi:10.1038/sj.mp.4002119. URL | Detail

  65. Kinney, P. L., 2008: Climate change, air quality, and human health. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35, 459-467, doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.025. URL | Detail

  66. Kjellstrom, T., A. J. Butler, R. M. lucas, and R. Bonita, 2010: Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: Potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases. International Journal of Public Health, 55, 97-103, doi:10.1007/s00038-009-0090-2. | Detail

  67. Kolivras, K. N., 2010: Changes in dengue risk potential in Hawaii, USA, due to climate variability and change. Climate Research, 42, 1-11, doi:10.3354/cr00861. URL | Detail

  68. Lafferty, K. D., 2009: The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases. Ecology, 90, 888-900, doi:10.1890/08-0079.1. | Detail

  69. Lambrechts, L., K. P. Paaijmans, T. Fansiri, L. B. Carrington, L. D. Kramer, M. B. Thomas, and T. W. Scott, 2011: Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 7460-7465, doi:10.1073/pnas.1101377108. URL | Detail

  70. Lee, T. S., K. Falter, P. Meyer, J. Mott, and C. Gwynn, 2009: Risk factors associated with clinic visits during the 1999 forest fires near the Hoopa Valley Indian Reservation, California, USA. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 19, 315-327, doi:10.1080/09603120802712750. | Detail

  71. Liao, K. J., E. Tagaris, K. Manomaiphiboon, C. Wang, J. H. Woo, P. Amar, S. He, and A. G. Russell, 2009: Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 865-878, doi:10.5194/acp-9-865-2009. URL | Detail

  72. Lin, S., M. Luo, R. J. Walker, X. Liu, S. A. Hwang, and R. Chinery, 2009: Extreme high temperatures and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Epidemiology, 20, 738-746, doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181ad5522. | Detail

  73. Lipp, E. K., A. Huq, R. R. Colwell, E. K. Lipp, A. Huq, and R. R. Colwell, 2002: Effects of global climate on infectious disease: The cholera model. Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 15, 757-70, doi:10.1128/​CMR.15.4.757-770.2002. URL | Detail

  74. Littell, J. S., D. McKenzie, D. L. Peterson, and A. L. Westerling, 2009: Climate and wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecological Applications, 19, 1003-1021, doi:10.1890/07-1183.1. | Detail

  75. Lobell, D. B., M. B. Burke, C. Tebaldi, M. D. Mastrandrea, W. P. Falcon, and R. L. Naylor, 2008: Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319, 607-610, doi:10.1126/science.1152339. | Detail

  76. Loughry, M., 2010: Ch. 11: Climate change, human movement and the promotion of mental health: What have we learnt from earlier global stressors? Climate Change and Displacement. Multidisciplinary Perspectives, J. McAdam, Ed., Hart Publishing, 274 pp. | Detail

  77. MacDonald, G. M., 2010: Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 21256-21262, doi:10.1073/pnas.0909651107. URL | Detail

  78. Maes, M., F. Meyer, P. Thompson, D. Peeters, and P. Cosyns, 1994: Synchronized annual rhythms in violent suicide rate, ambient temperature and the light-dark span. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 90, 391-396, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0447.1994.tb01612.x. | Detail

  79. Martin-Latry, K., M. P. Goumy, P. Latry, C. Gabinski, B. Bégaud, I. Faure, and H. Verdoux, 2007: Psychotropic drugs use and risk of heat-related hospitalisation. European Psychiatry, 22, 335-338, doi:10.1016/j.eurpsy.2007.03.007. | Detail

  80. McFarlane, A. C., and M. Van Hooff, 2009: Impact of childhood exposure to a natural disaster on adult mental health: 20-year longitudinal follow-up study. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 195, 142-148, doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.108.054270. URL | Detail

  81. McGregor, G. R., 2011: Human biometeorology. Progress in Physical Geography, 36, 93-109, doi:10.1177/0309133311417942. | Detail

  82. McMichael, A. J., C. E. McMichael, H. L. Berry, and K. Bowen, 2010: Ch. 10: Climate-related displacement: Health risks and responses. Climate Change and Displacement: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, J. McAdam, Ed., Hart Publishing, 191-219. | Detail

  83. Mendell, M. J., A. G. Mirer, K. Cheung, and J. Douwes, 2011: Respiratory and allergic health effects of dampness, mold, and dampness-related agents: A review of the epidemiologic evidence. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119, 748-756, doi:10.1289/ehp.1002410. URL | Detail

  84. Mills, D. M., 2009: Climate change, extreme weather events, and US health impacts: What can we say? Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 51, 26-32, doi:10.1097/JOM.0b013e31817d32da. | Detail

  85. Mills, J. N., K. L. Gage, and A. S. Khan, 2010: Potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases: A review and proposed research plan. Environmental Health Perspectives, 118, 1507-1514, doi:10.1289/ehp.0901389. URL | Detail

  86. Mills, M. A., D. Edmondson, and C. L. Park, 2007: Trauma and stress response among Hurricane Katrina evacuees. American Journal of Public Health, 97, S116-S123, doi:10.2105/AJPH.2006.086678. URL | Detail

  87. Moore, S. K., V. L. Trainer, N. J. Mantua, M. S. Parker, E. A. Laws, L. C. Backer, and L. E. Fleming, 2008: Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health. Environmental Health, 7, 1-12, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S4. URL | Detail

  88. Morin, C. W., and A. C. Comrie, 2010: Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model. International Journal of Biometeorology, 54, 517-529, doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0349-6. | Detail

  89. Mudarri, D., and W. J. Fisk, 2007: Public health and economic impact of dampness and mold. Indoor Air, 17, 226-235, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0668.2007.00474.x. URL | Detail

  90. Naumova, E. N., J. S. Jagai, B. Matyas, A. DeMaria, I. B. MacNeill, and J. K. Griffiths, 2007: Seasonality in six enterically transmitted diseases and ambient temperature. Epidemiology and Infection, 135, 281-292, doi:10.1017/S0950268806006698. URL | Detail

  91. Nichols, G., C. Lane, N. Asgari, N. Q. Verlander, and A. Charlett, 2009: Rainfall and outbreaks of drinking water related disease and in England and Wales. Journal of Water Health, 7, 1-8, doi:10.2166/wh.2009.143. URL | Detail

  92. ,, 2012: National Climate Assessment Health Sector Literature Review and Bibliography. Technical Input for the Interagency Climate Change and Human Health Group. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. URL | Detail

  93. Nitschke, M., G. R. Tucker, A. L. Hansen, S. Williams, Y. Zhang, and P. Bi, 2011: Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: A case-series analysis. Environmental Health, 10, 1-9, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-10-42. URL | Detail

  94. ,, 2010: Weather Fatalities. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. URL | Detail

  95. Ogden, N. H., C. Bouchard, K. Kurtenbach, G. Margos, L. R. Lindsay, L. Trudel, S. Nguon, and F. Milord, 2010: Active and passive surveillance and phylogenetic analysis of Borrelia burgdorferi elucidate the process of Lyme disease risk emergence in Canada. Environmental Health Perspectives, 118, 909-14, doi:10.1289/ehp.0901766. URL | Detail

  96. Ogden, N. H., R. L. Lindsay, M. Morshed, P. N. Sockett, and H. Artsob, 2009: The emergence of Lyme disease in Canada. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 180, 1221-1224, doi:10.1503/cmaj.080148. URL | Detail

  97. Ogden, N. H., L. St-Onge, I. K. Barker, S. Brazeau, M. Bigras-Poulin, D. F. Charron, C. Francis, A. Heagy, L. R. Lindsay, A. Maarouf, P. Michel, F. Milord, C. J. O'Callaghan, L. Trudel, and R. A. Thompson, 2008: Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change. International Journal of Health Geographics, 7, 24, doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-24. URL | Detail

  98. Onozuka, D., M. Hashizume, and A. Hagihara, 2010: Effects of weather variability on infectious gastroenteritis. Epidemiology and Infection, 138, 236-43, doi:10.1017/s0950268809990574. | Detail

  99. Ostro, B. D., L. A. Roth, R. S. Green, and R. Basu, 2009: Estimating the mortality effect of the July 2006 California heat wave. Environmental Research, 109, 614-619, doi:10.1016/j.envres.2009.03.010. URL | Detail

  100. Page, L. A., S. Hajat, and R. S. Kovats, 2007: Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 191, 106-112, doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.106.031948. URL | Detail

  101. Patz, J., D. Campbell-Lendrum, H. Gibbs, and R. Woodruff, 2008: Health impact assessment of global climate change: Expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making. Annual Review of Public Health, 29, 27-39, doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090750. URL | Detail

  102. Patz, J. A., S. J. Vavrus, C. K. Uejio, and S. L. McLellan, 2008: Climate change and waterborne disease risk in the Great Lakes region of the US. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35, 451-458, doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.026. URL | Detail

  103. Pfister, G. G., C. Wiedinmyer, and L. K. Emmons, 2008: Impacts of the fall 2007 California wildfires on surface ozone: Integrating local observations with global model simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L19814, doi:10.1029/2008GL034747. | Detail

  104. Pinkerton, K. E., W. N. Rom, M. Akpinar-Elci, J. R. Balmes, H. Bayram, O. Brandli, J. W. Hollingsworth, P. L. Kinney, H. G. Margolis, W. J. Martin, E. N. Sasser, K. R. Smith, and T. K. Takaro, 2012: An official American Thoracic Society workshop report: Climate change and human health. Proceedings of the American Thoracic Society, 9, 3-8, doi:10.1513/pats.201201-015ST. URL | Detail

  105. Ramos, M. M., H. Mohammed, E. Zielinski-Gutierrez, M. H. Hayden, J. Luis Roble Lopez, M. Fournier, A. Rodríguez Trujillo, R. Burton, J. M. Brunkard, L. Anaya-Lopez, A. Abell Banicki, P. Kuri Morales, B. Smith, J. L. Muñoz, and S. H. Waterman, 2008: Epidemic dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever at the Texas–Mexico border: Results of a household-based seroepidemiologic survey, December 2005. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 78, 364-369. URL | Detail

  106. Reid, C. E., and J. L. Gamble, 2009: Aeroallergens, allergic disease, and climate change: Impacts and adaptation. EcoHealth, 6, 458-470, doi:10.1007/s10393-009-0261-x. URL | Detail

  107. Reiter, P., 2008: Climate change and mosquito-borne disease: Knowing the horse before hitching the cart. Revue Scientifique et Technique-Office International des Épizooties, 27, 383-398. URL | Detail

  108. Reser, J. P., and J. K. Swim, 2011: Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change. American Psychologist, 66, 277-289, doi:10.1037/a0023412. | Detail

  109. Rey, G., E. Jougla, A. Fouillet, G. Pavillon, P. Bessemoulin, P. Frayssinet, J. Clavel, and D. Hémon, 2007: The impact of major heat waves on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in France from 1971 to 2003. International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health, 80, 615-626, doi:10.1007/s00420-007-0173-4. | Detail

  110. Rizak, S., and S. E. Hrudey, 2008: Drinking-water safety: Challenges for community-managed systems. Journal of Water Health, 6, 33-42, doi:10.2166/wh.2008.033. URL | Detail

  111. Rosenthal, J., 2009: Climate change and the geographic distribution of infectious diseases. EcoHealth, 6, 489-495, doi:10.1007/s10393-010-0314-1. URL | Detail

  112. Russell, R. C., 2009: Mosquito-borne disease and climate change in Australia: Time for a reality check. Australian Journal of Entomology, 48, 1-7, doi:10.1111/j.1440-6055.2008.00677.x. | Detail

  113. Schlenker, W., and M. J. Roberts, 2009: Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 15594-15598, doi:10.1073/pnas.0906865106. URL | Detail

  114. Schmidhuber, J., and F. N. Tubiello, 2007: Global food security under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 19703-19708, doi:10.1073/pnas.0701976104. URL | Detail

  115. Schmier, J. K., and K. L. Ebi, 2009: The impact of climate change and aeroallergens on children's health. Allergy and Asthma Proceedings, 30, 229-237, doi:10.2500/aap.2009.30.3229. | Detail

  116. Semenza, J. C., J. E. Suk, V. Estevez, K. L. Ebi, and E. Lindgren, 2011: Mapping climate change vulnerabilities to infectious diseases in Europe. Environmental Health Perspectives, 120, 385-92, doi:10.1289/ehp.1103805. URL | Detail

  117. Shea, K. M., R. T. Truckner, R. W. Weber, and D. B. Peden, 2008: Climate change and allergic disease. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 122, 443-453, doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2008.06.032. | Detail

  118. Sheffield, P. E., and P. J. Landrigan, 2011: Global climate change and children’s health: Threats and strategies for prevention. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119, 291-298, doi:10.1289/ehp.1002233. URL | Detail

  119. Sheffield, P. E., K. R. Weinberger, K. Ito, T. D. Matte, R. W. Mathes, G. S. Robinson, and P. L. Kinney, 2011: The association of tree pollen concentration peaks and allergy medication sales in New York City: 2003–2008. ISRN Allergy, 2011, 1-7, doi:10.5402/2011/537194. URL | Detail

  120. Spickett, J. T., H. L. Brown, and K. Rumchev, 2011: Climate change and air quality: The potential impact on health. Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health, 23, 37S-45S, doi:10.1177/1010539511398114. | Detail

  121. Spracklen, D. V., J. A. Logan, L. J. Mickley, R. J. Park, R. Yevich, A. L. Westerling, and D. A. Jaffe, 2007: Wildfires drive interannual variability of organic carbon aerosol in the western US in summer. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16816, doi:10.1029/2007GL030037. | Detail

  122. Staudt, A., P. Glick, D. Mizejewski, and D. Inkley, 2010: Extreme Allergies and Global Warming. 12 pp., National Wildlife Federation and Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America. URL | Detail

  123. Stöllberger, C., W. Lutz, and J. Finsterer, 2009: Heat-related side-effects of neurological and non-neurological medication may increase heatwave fatalities. European Journal of Neurology, 16, 879-882, doi:10.1111/j.1468-1331.2009.02581.x. URL | Detail

  124. Tabachnick, W. J., 2010: Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world. Journal of Experimental Biology, 213, 946-954, doi:10.1242/​jeb.037564. URL | Detail

  125. Tagaris, E., K. Manomaiphiboon, K. J. Liao, L. R. Leung, J. H. Woo, S. He, P. Amar, and A. G. Russell, 2007: Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, doi:10.1029/2006JD008262. | Detail

  126. Teschke, K., N. Bellack, H. Shen, J. Atwater, R. Chu, M. Koehoorn, Y. C. MacNab, H. Schreier, and J. L. Isaac-Renton, 2010: Water and sewage systems, socio-demographics, and duration of residence associated with endemic intestinal infectious diseases: A cohort study. BMC Public Health, 10, 767, doi:10.1186/1471-2458-10-767. URL | Detail

  127. Tubiello, F. N., J. F. Soussana, and S. M. Howden, 2007: Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 19686-19690, doi:10.1073/pnas.0701728104. | Detail

  128. Westerling, A. L., and B. P. Bryant, 2008: Climate change and wildfire in California. Climatic Change, 87, 231-249, doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9363-z. | Detail

  129. Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, and T. W. Swetnam, 2006: Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science, 313, 940-943, doi:10.1126/science.1128834. | Detail

  130. Westerling, A. L., M. G. Turner, E. A. H. Smithwick, W. H. Romme, and M. G. Ryan, 2011: Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 13165-13170, doi:10.1073/pnas.1110199108. URL http://www.pnas.org/content/108/32/13165.full.pdf | Detail

  131. Wilby, R. L., 2008: Constructing climate change scenarios of urban heat island intensity and air quality. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 35, 902-919, doi:10.1068/b33066t. | Detail

  132. Wolf, J., , M. L. Muilenberg, and L. H. Ziska, 2010: Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations amplify Alternaria alternata sporulation and total antigen production. Environmental Health Perspectives, 118, 1223-1228, doi:10.1289/ehp.0901867. | Detail

  133. Ye, X., R. Wolff, W. Yu, P. Vaneckova, X. Pan, and S. Tong, 2012: Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence. Environmental Health Perspectives, 120, 19-28, doi:10.1289/ehp.1003198. | Detail

  134. Zanobetti, A., M. S. O'Neill, C. J. Gronlund, and J. D. Schwartz, 2012: Summer temperature variability and long-term survival among elderly people with chronic disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 6608-6613, doi:10.1073/pnas.1113070109. | Detail

  135. Ziska, L. H., 2011: Climate change, carbon dioxide and global crop production: Food security and uncertainty. Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture, A. Dinar and Mendelsohn, R., Eds., Edward Elgar Publishing, 9-31. | Detail

  136. ström, D. O. Å., F. Bertil, and R. Joacim, 2011: Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population: A review of recent studies. Maturitas, 69, 99-105, doi:10.1016/j.maturitas.2011.03.008. | Detail

The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.

A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

United States Global Change Research Program logo United States Global Change Research Program participating agency logos